Ecuadoran presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio, an anti-corruption crusader, was assassinated at gunpoint August 9, just two weeks before the country's elections. Alisha Holland, Associate Professor in Harvard’s Government Department who specializes in the Andean region, analyzes the horrific event and what it means for Ecuador.
Speaker 1:
We just heard some startling news from Ecuador. Presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio was assassinated at gunpoint, August 9th, just two weeks before the country's elections.
We're talking about the impact of this horrific event with Alicia Holland. She's an associate professor in Harvard's government department, who specializes in the Andean region. Welcome to Faculty Voices, Alicia.
Alicia:
Thank you so much for having me, and especially in this tough moment.
Speaker 1:
First of all, could you tell us a little bit about what happened?
Alicia:
Well, obviously the investigation is unfolding, but last night when presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio was leaving a meeting at a high school in the north of Quito, he was shot somewhere between 12 and 40 times in the head as he was entering his vehicle.
He had been receiving threats from narco trafficking organizations for many weeks and had reported those threats. And so the suspicion is that it was a drug cartel that ordered his assassination.
His assassin also died on the scene, but there supposedly were about eight arrests last night. So we're still certainly learning more about those responsible for the terrible assassination.
Speaker 1:
I understand you had met Villavicencio. Could you tell us a bit about him?
Alicia:
Absolutely. So, and Villavicencio, first and perhaps foremost, was known as an investigative journalist. So he has been responsible for some of the most important corruption investigations in the country.
Most recently, he had broken a major corruption scandal known as the Green Rice Scandal, Arroz Verde, which was a campaign finance scandal that ultimately led to the conviction of former president Raphael Correa.
He then went on to win a seat in Congress, the [foreign language], where he had been heading the Oversight Commission, and transformed that commission basically into a body that was seriously investigating political corruption, and had served in that role until the current president Guillermo Lasso disbanded Congress and called for early elections.
So, he's known as probably one of the bravest journalists in the country, and dedicated his political career to denouncing corruption and the links between government officials and narco traffickers, as well.
Speaker 1:
You say narco traffickers. Are these international people or are these people who are indigenous to Ecuador?
Alicia:
In the last five years, crime has really taken off in Ecuador and a lot is still being learned about the exact groups that are operating and their international connections. It's pretty well established that some of the largest Mexican cartels have a presence in Ecuador. So Villavicencio, in particular, had reported that the Ecuadorian arm of the Sinaloa cartel, one of the main Mexican drug cartels, had been threatening him.
So there are Mexican cartels operating, there are cartels with linkages to Eastern Europe, there are indigenous Ecuadorian street gangs that also are mixed up in the drug trade. So there is a confluence of different actors that have produced tremendous violence, particularly in Ecuador's prisons, but also spilling out into the streets. And I should say that Villavicencio's assassination also comes on the heels of another major political assassination of the mayor of the port city of Manta, Agustin Intriago, who was killed at the end of July. So, it does seem like there is a wave of attacks on politicians starting to take hold in Ecuador.
Speaker 1:
This seems to be a turning point for a historically peaceful country. What do you make of that?
Alicia:
Absolutely. It's a horrible sign for the extent to which narco trafficking groups have penetrated the political system and are trying to attack the highest levels of government. Ecuador long has been this outlier in its local region, in that it was far more peaceful than neighboring Columbia, and it now seems like both the rates of crime and violence have escalated tremendously, and the assassination is at a different scale than anything that has been seen in Ecuador, and in any democracy, a political assassination is a horrible affront to the electoral system. And I do think this will be a watershed moment for Ecuador.
Already the political campaign had centered on issues of crime and security, but this assassination really brings home the extent to which the next president is going to have to tackle crime, security, and the penetration of narco traffickers into the Ecuadorian state and political system.
Speaker 1:
So how will this affect the upcoming elections?
Alicia:
That's such a good question, and I think it's a little bit hard to tell. So as I mentioned, many of the candidates have been talking about crime and security and promising a [foreign language] hard on crime approach. There is a populist outsider, Jan Topic, who's probably built his career around emulating Bukele, the President of El Salvador, and really taking on street gangs regardless of civil liberties, due process, basic human rights.
It's possible that this assassination strengthens his appeals. Topic had sort of floundered in the polls. He hadn't really taken off, but certainly the popular demand for a candidate who can address security is there and the assassination might reinforce that.
It's a little harder to tell what happens to the leading candidate, lisa Gonzalez, who represents former President Correa's political movement, Revolución Ciudadana.
So Villavicencio, attacked corruption in all parts of the political system, but he certainly was most vocal about the links between Correa's movement, narco traffickers, and immense corruption in the public sector. Certainly too soon to say who is responsible for this assassination, but his strongest complaints had been about the linkages between Correa's political movement and the drug cartels.
So it's possible there's a public backlash against the sort of leading candidate against Revolución Ciudadana, if we take Villavicencio's accusations and analysis of the structure of the Ecuadorian political system seriously.
But I should just say the Ecuador's presidential election, it's a very fragmented field. Villavicencio was polling probably at his maximum, about 10% in the polls. But the real competition is around which candidate gets into the second round. Everyone expects Luisa Gonzalez to be in that second round of the election. She's leading in the polls somewhere around 25% of the vote, but it's a very open field for the second place candidate. And I think there are big questions about how this assassination affects which candidate for the opposition gets into the second round of the presidential election.
Speaker 1:
You've been talking about the candidates who are actually left in the field, but do you think there's going to be an attempt to replace Fernando Villavicencio?
Alicia:
It's possible. So he represents the nascent, anti-corruption movement. He has incredible stature in the country and it's hard to know who within his party [foreign language], would replace him. I'm sure they will search for a candidate. It's possible that voters rally around that candidate.
But Villavicencio is a very special figure. He really has a stature in Ecuadorian politics and earned a reputation for the fight against corruption, that it'll be challenging to replace him. I'm sure his political movement is looking for a replacement. I, personally, haven't heard discussion yet about who that might be.
Speaker 1:
Political assassinations, whether we're talking about Gaitan or Galan in Columbia, or Colosio in Mexico, have always had a long-lasting impact on their country's psyche. What do you anticipate in terms of Ecuador? Can you think a little bit about this question of trauma?
Alicia:
So I think going back to our earlier conversation, I think this, first of all, is a watershed and understanding Ecuador as a violent country with a real challenge of confronting drug trafficking. This has come on the public agenda, but I think the extreme and horrible nature of the assassination will center public attention and resources on the issue in a substantial way.
I think, again, the second piece that's harder to anticipate, is how this affects the public understanding of the political linkages to narco trafficking. And whether it is seen that Correa's political movement or a different political movement, perhaps the past governments of Guillermo Lasso or Lenin Moreno are blamed for allowing narco trafficking and crime to take hold.
So I think there certainly can be a reconfiguration of political forces. It's possible that there's a convergence around an opposition to Correa's movement that already existed, but that opposition takes on a new form and either challenging the corruption of the political system, or focusing on a much harder set of security tactics that we've seen. So, I think the impact on the political agenda, political movements that take off, is still to be seen
Speaker 1:
In the next couple of months, what do you think we should be looking at?
Alicia:
Well, the first round of the presidential election is still planned to take place on August 20th. So I think some of these initial questions about who is the second candidate in that election and whether they are pushing a very right-wing security agenda, if they replace Villavicencio with a anti-corruption agenda, we'll know much more about that after August 20th.
The current president, Guillermo Lasso, has declared a state of exception, has promised to find and prosecute those responsible for the assassination. I think the big question there is really whether this is purely blamed on one of the drug cartels and seen as an attack against the state by a drug cartel alone, or whether that investigation finds a linkage to a political party and touches the linkages between the cartels and the Ecuadorian political system. So I would be looking at that investigation and the extent to which it touches the highest rungs of political power.
Speaker 1:
Do you have anything else to add about what we are looking at with this horrific assassination and its implications?
Alicia:
I think there's two things to underscore. First, Villavicencio is a political candidate, and this will be seen in the context of the presidential election, but I do want listeners to know how much he did for journalism in Ecuador. He is career built investigative journalism in the country, and he paid an enormous personal price, multiple times, to investigate corruption. He was charged with libel and defamation and forced into exile, and a lot of people might see circulating a video of him saying that he would not wear a bulletproof vest, he was going to defy the narco traffickers, and that has to be read as part of a long career of doing very dangerous things in pursuit of a more just country and democracy.
Second, I would just say that I think this, in a broader regional context, is showing the extent to which narco traffickers still are influencing the political system. For those who are following Columbia at the moment, there is a major scandal with Gustavo Petro's son, who received money from a drug trafficker that his son claims Petro knew about, contributed to his presidential campaign.
It is obviously not the first scandal involving drug money in politics. This has been going on for many decades, but I think these events are painting a picture of the extent to which drug cartels are still shaping electoral politics and shaping the types of public policies that are being pursued.
And I think the big question mark is whether that continues to push voters towards [foreign language] right-wing policy responses, such as those that have been pursued by Nayib Bukele in El Salvador. And what the consequences of those policies are for democracy, I think, is one of the most important questions for the region.
Speaker 1:
Wow, thank you so much for sharing your time with us on such a short notice. We've been talking about the impact of this week's assassination of Ecuadorian presidential candidate, Fernando Villavicencio.
Alicia Holland is an associate professor in Harvard's government department who specializes in the Andean region. Thank you, Alicia.
Alicia:
Thank you so much for having me.