Alisha Holland, Associate Professor in Harvard’s Government Department, looks at the upcoming Colombian elections on May 29.
June Carolyn Erlick:
Alicia Holland is an associate professor in Harvard's Government Department with a particular interest in the Andean region. Welcome, Alicia, we're talking today about Colombia's upcoming elections on May 29th. These elections may determine who will replace Iván Duque, who was elected in 2018. If none of the four candidates gets 50% plus one of the vote, then the elections will go to a runoff on June 19th. So who are the candidates?
Alicia Holland:
Well, first of all, thank you so much for having me today to talk about this exciting race. So at the moment, the front runner in the race is Gustavo Petro, who represents the Colombia Humana movement, and Petro was also one of the main candidates in the 2018 race that elected Duque, but this time around, he actually seems to have the lead in the polls, which would be historic for Colombia, given that the country has not elected a leftist president. And Petro, to tell you a little bit about him, was a former mayor of Bogotá from 2011 to 2014. He's now run for president three times, always representing, what he calls, a progressive left.
Alicia Holland:
His own background is that he participated in the M-19 guerrilla movement, which was one of Colombia's leftist guerrilla groups, seeking both to redistribute wealth and political power in the country. And his main challenger at the moment, at least it's what it looks like so far, is Federico or Fico Gutiérrez. Gutiérrez is a former mayor of Medellín, which is Colombia's second largest city. He's running on a sort of moderate right-wing platform. He in many ways was an unexpected candidate for the right in a crowded field and is supported by the followers of the popular former president, Álvaro Uribe, although with less close tie than the current president, Iván Duque.
Alicia Holland:
And then I'll just mention there's a third candidate who has a chance to upset things, although remains at about maybe 10 to 12% in the polls, who's Rodolfo Hernández. Hernández, as a sort of construction company magnet from Bucaramanga, he was the former of that city. So he's really running on a sort of populous campaign focused on anti-corruption messages, and he has in some ways the least political experience and the greatest rejection of the current elites and establishment politics. So those are the three main candidates. As the polls currently stand, Petro's been running at about 35% support, Fico around maybe 22%, and then we have Hernández somewhere around 10 to 12% with a good number of people saying they're going to cast no ballots or undecided.
June Carolyn Erlick:
Why do you think that moderates like Sergio Fajardo have been unable to capture the public imagination?
Alicia Holland:
This is really the big question of the race, and in some ways, what was such a surprise to me seeing how this race has unfolded. So a lot of people, when they thought back on the 2018 presidential election, really saw it as a failure of the center to coalesce around a candidate. So in the second round, it was a race between Duque, who won, who was moderate, right wing, with ties to Uribe. And then again, Petro on the left, who really represents perhaps a more radical left than many Colombians are comfortable with.
Alicia Holland:
And the interpretation of that race was if only a centrist candidate like Sergio Fajardo had gotten in to the second round, he would've won. And so this time around, the center was very deliberate that they were going hold a primary to coalesce around one single candidate and Fajardo won the sort of centrist primary, but really never took off. Maybe there're potentially a couple of reasons for that. One is that Fajardo's own campaign has been shrouded in corruption accusations from the time both when he was governor of Antioquia, and then even stemming back to when he was mayor. The accusations in the end were dismissed but I think in a context in which many voters are very worried about corruption coming off major scandals, that tainted his campaign and his image.
Alicia Holland:
And then the second piece, that's probably important as we talk about Petro as well, is really a sense that the left has been able to capitalize on a lot of moderate voters who in 2018, I think, were never Petro, could never vote for such a left-wing candidate, but Colombia experienced a major wave of protests that I think brought a lot of voters to think that a more radical rethinking of issues of inequality and police brutality was necessary. And Fajardo in a lot of ways kind of fell out of the national scene in a way that Petro didn't. So Petro has been a senator, very outspoken and I think was able to capitalize on a lot of the discontent that's been brewing over the past three years.
June Carolyn Erlick:
Alicia, how is this candidacy of Petro different from his two previous runs for office?
Alicia Holland:
Yeah, so both Petro has shifted somewhat and the national context has shifted somewhat. So first on Petro's own campaign. He's been somewhat more able to strike up alliances in this election. So Petro has always been criticized as being such a sort of firebrand, standing on his own, and this election he has tried to make some alliances with parts of the liberal party. He's tried to get evangelical votes, regional politicians behind him, so that's been potentially important in expanding his appeal.
Alicia Holland:
The second is that the sort of issue that's at stake. Colombia has, in some ways, moved away from debates around peace after it did broker a peace deal with FARC, its largest guerrilla group. And that's brought to the fore some issues that have always been part of Petro's campaign, but now are really taking center stage. So in particular, positions on oil extraction and the environment have gained salience in this campaign. Part of that is also through the choice of Petro's running mate, Francia Márquez, who's an environmental activist. And Petro has said that he will stop oil exploration in the country and really made the move towards more renewable energy in a diversified economy, a centerpiece of this campaign.
Alicia Holland:
Now, those are themes that you can trace back in Petro's history, but again, they've gained really important salience. Likewise debates around the pension system. That's an issue that's been important to many Colombians, but has always taken a backseat to the war itself. So those issues are really shifting. And so I'd say this campaign is different, both in Petro's ability to strike up alliances and perhaps in some ways a more conciliatory tone towards some groups within the sort of center, center-left of Colombian politics, and then also really bringing to the fore his economic proposals that have been developing over the years, but are now taking center stage.
June Carolyn Erlick:
You mentioned Francia Márquez, how significant do you think it is that his running mate is a black environmentalist and human rights activist?
Alicia Holland:
So Francia Márquez has a support group of her own. She came in second in the last primary. And so in picking her, Petro was really picking a candidate who did have an independent base of popular support. But as you mention, the choice also really moved the campaign potentially further to the left and further to a green-left position, as I just said, so issues around the environment and mining really became central to the campaign.
Alicia Holland:
On the other hand, it's incredibly important to note that she is an Afro-Colombian leader, electorally that can win Petro's support in rural areas, historically black areas that are very excited to see a candidate representing black communities. On the other hand, obviously it can polarize voters in a country that really has never embraced a black politician before, and in some ways could push some of the more moderate middle class voters who are skeptical of both anti-mining positions and the extent to which the country is potentially recognizing the rights of black and indigenous minorities and lower class groups.
June Carolyn Erlick:
I told you when we first talked that I was going to ask you some crystal ball questions. So do you think that she's helping him more than she's hurting him?
Alicia Holland:
It's a tough question. So on the one hand, I think that she has brought to the fore issues around mining and extraction where the country is very divided. So Colombia is heavily dependent on income from oil and, to a certain extent, coal exports. And I think in her nomination, Petro has taken a very strong, although again, you could find it in his past platforms, position against new exploration. So he's becoming even more a part of the green-left at a time when Colombia really is also financially in a very difficult position. And so to the extent the right has the ability to differentiate itself, to stake out, "We're going to take a modern approach to diversifying the economy to renewables, but not against oil and gas given Colombia's dependence," it's an issue that I think potentially the right can gain ground on if the election becomes centered on that issue.
Alicia Holland:
On the other hand, I think Petro long has been seen as very authoritarian, masculine, unwilling to listen to others. And I think Francia Márquez has an incredible following of her own and also has potentially soften Petro's image, helped him connect to rural areas, and in those ways, I think has mobilized voters and made his message of really reaching rural Colombia, really rethinking a model that is more inclusive, both in terms of economic redistribution and then also issues of policing and security that have taken the fore. So in those ways I think her nomination and her charisma and what she represents as a black woman in Colombian politics potentially are quite positive for Petro, and lend credibility to some of his promises. So it's not a clear cut answer. I think her nomination has really been a mixed bag for him.
June Carolyn Erlick:
What about the youth vote? Four million young Colombians have gained the right to vote since 2018, that's a 10% boost to the voter rolls. What does that mean?
Alicia Holland:
Well, I think that the youth vote is one reason that actually, as we talk about issues of mining and the environment, that Petro might really connect with a lot of voters. So I think the environment tends to be much more important to young Colombians. I also should say Francia Márquez is a younger less-known face in politics, so I think can really mobilize and motivate young voters who otherwise might sort of see, like, "This is just a review of 2018." You've seen Petro before, to a certain extent Fico looks like Duque, and so a certain apathy about the political process, whereas I think Francia's presence on the ticket and the ability to talk about issues like the environment, that are at the top of the mind for youth voters, is quite important.
June Carolyn Erlick:
So some critics say that a Petro presidency will turn Colombia into a new Venezuela. Do you have any comments on that?
Alicia Holland:
Well, this is a longstanding boogeyman of the right, which is that Petro is the same as Chavez and Maduro, he's going to expropriate land and businesses. And many of those fears I think are overblown. They've seen Petro in government and he said so himself that what Colombia needs is democracy and equity, not socialism. So a sort of easy comparison that he's a socialist who's going to take away people's property, I think is completely misguided. On the other hand, what he actually will do in office, he talks about things like democratizing the economy or democratizing land, and those proposals for the most part look like pretty social-democratic mainstream things, higher taxes on businesses, taxes on unused or speculative land.
Alicia Holland:
Where I think they're potentially a little less clear and maybe a little bit worrisome is that he has said in his first 100 days as president, that he will rule by sort of emergency decree. Now, this is a concern about many politicians in Latin America of using executive power. Again, I don't think he will use that power to expropriate property and change property relations, but it does represent a centralization of power that can be quite worrisome and that many people are concerned about and overriding legislative checks and sort of liberal checks.
Alicia Holland:
I should say, in Colombia's constitutional system, the Constitutional Court would have to approve that use of emergency power. I doubt the court will do so. So in that sense, even the sort of most worrisome part of these accusations that he's going to be a left-wing populist might be somewhat empty, but in terms of his economic program, these are really kind of historic boogeymen that are countered against the left in Colombia and that I don't think represent what Petro would try to do in office.
June Carolyn Erlick:
But do you expect that there may be capital flight or other economic consequences if he wins?
Alicia Holland:
Investors are nervous. So you can see that in the credit markets at the moment. I don't think there's going to be massive capital flight. I don't think the fear is large-scale expropriations. I think a lot of investment concerns do have to do what's happening to gas and oil projects and new projects in the country. So in that sense, when you say, "What will the economic consequences be for sort of new investment in Colombia, especially in the gas and oil sector?" Petro stays true to this plan, not to authorize those projects, well, you will see those projects move elsewhere and a decline in investment.
Alicia Holland:
And then another big debate is around taxes and what will happen to taxes on business and capital. Again, I think the most likely scenario is actually that Petro is blocked in the legislature and we don't see any radical change in economic policy or rise in taxation. And I don't even think that the sorts of tax increases he's talking about would be sufficient to deter investors that are already in the country.
June Carolyn Erlick:
So let's talk about Federico Gutiérrez, or Fico as people call him, what's his background?
Alicia Holland:
So as I mentioned before, Fico was mayor of Medellín, which is Colombia's second largest city. He was a relatively popular mayor. And I think that Fico to a large part represents a sort of moderate, right-wing, conservative politician. The easiest way for that to go against him in a campaign, is he's sort of insulted as another Duque, who's a quite unpopular president at the moment. To those who support him he represents a stable kind of center-right path, and most of his campaign rhetoric is about security. He's seen as relatively successful in managing the challenges of security in Medellín. And then also he's really pushed that he would increase growth and sort of reinstate Colombia's economic standing, so pretty much continuity and economic policy with a push to improve job performance and growth.
June Carolyn Erlick:
On security concerns, to what degree does he represent the hard-right?
Alicia Holland:
So I should say in terms of security, his main focus has really been on urban security, which already that shift, we should think of how historic this is for Colombia, that the main debate is actually not even about sort of the war and paramilitary violence or even fragments of criminal groups, but a lot of his security plans have actually been more thinking about the national police force and urban policing, which is where his background is in Medellín. And in terms of what he represents, a lot of it, I would say, is what I would kind of consider a center-right, police reform approach, which he's proposing greater use of technology to improve the police force. He wants to create special units within the police force that would just be focused on sort of security tasks rather than administrative tasks.
Alicia Holland:
That said, we're in a context where Colombia just went through major protests, questioning the security model and questioning its treatment of especially black and poor citizens. And so to sort of lean into, "What we need is just more technology and reorganization of the police," does represent a right-wing position that is not trying to think through how do we make the police force more humane, more equitable in its treatment? And so in that sense, it is certainly a right-wing approach to policing, but it is not a sort of, if you think of kind of when you said hard-right, like Bolsonaro or a populist-right that's saying, "Let's just go shoot criminals." That's that's not part of Fico's rhetoric. It's instead, "Let's reorganize the police force, let's create new police units, let's give more funding to the police," so rethinking how the actual police is structured.
June Carolyn Erlick:
These campaigns are taking place in an atmosphere of incredible violence. Both Petro and Gutiérrez have received credible death threats. Why are we seeing such a violent atmosphere?
Alicia Holland:
Part of it has to do with the fact that, although I've said this is sort of the first post-peace election, Colombia is not peaceful. There is an incredible amount of violence against social leaders. There's been a fragmentation of many of the guerrilla groups and many of the sort of criminal groups that are in charge of drug trafficking routes, and that have fragmented to control territory that the FARC used to control, so we're still in a context of incredible violence. And then on top of that, you layer a very polarized election.
Alicia Holland:
So on the one hand, this really is a historic election in which a candidate from the left is poised to win the election. And that has obviously generated a series of death threats of what it represents to conservative class of Colombians, and also what it might represent in terms of relations with Venezuela, reinstating relations with Venezuela. And then on the opposite side there, Petro has very fervent supporters. And so seeing a right-wing candidate potentially challenging him also can generate backlash.
Alicia Holland:
And so we were seeing this polarized right-left race in a context of what already is incredible violence and where we've seen the deaths of many social leaders promoting the sorts of redistributive and more equalizing reforms that Petro represents. So it's unfortunately not surprising to see death threats in the context of this campaign. There have been additional security protocols, so hopefully none of those death threats translate into the assassination of candidates that we've seen in the past in Colombia.
June Carolyn Erlick:
One thing is to get elected, another thing is to be able to govern. So I'd ask you about either of the candidates, if Petro wins, do you think he will be able to govern and if Gutiérrez wins, do you think he will be able to govern?
Alicia Holland:
Unfortunately, it's a challenge for both of them. So let's start with Petro. So Petro's party has the largest faction in the Colombia Congress, but still nowhere near the type of governing majority needed. As I mentioned before, his proposal has basically been to declare a state of emergency that would allow him to rule by decree for 100 days. I don't think the Constitutional Court will approve that emergency decree use, which is going to put him in a major confrontation with Congress. Now, Petro's strong suit has never been compromise and coalition building. We'll see if that changes. As I mentioned, this campaign he's done it more than in the past, but I think the concern is that he's going to need the support of the liberal party, as well as some smaller parties to piece together a governing coalition.
Alicia Holland:
And so that's certainly going temper some of his legislative proposals, things like taxes that require congressional approval, I think will be very hard. There are other things where he wields veto power. So things like the approval of new oil concessions, I think he would be able to veto new concessions. So this will be a challenge to many pieces of Petro's governing plan, and I think the big question is once he is in a confrontation with Congress, how does he maneuver and what exactly does he do?
Alicia Holland:
Fico has even less legislative support. On the other hand, I can see him striking alliances with a much larger set of parties to piece together a center-right governing coalition, not that different from what we've seen with Duque, which is to say it's going to be a pretty tame set of policies that are proposed. I would say one place where I think there's overlap between both Petro and Fico is around the creation of a larger, more generous non-contributory pension for Colombians. It's possible a proposal like that you could see going through, but in general, I would say that Fico will have a hard time passing anything too radical, nor is he proposing anything too different from the status quo.
June Carolyn Erlick:
How would the election of either of them affect the relationship with the United States?
Alicia Holland:
That's a good question. So Petro has been skeptical of the war on drugs and some of the eradication policies that the United States has favored. Then again, Colombia has time suspended aerial eradication and moved away from some of the most extreme control policies. So I would expect that on drugs, there's mounting tension as Petro tries to stop aerial fumigation and potentially take an approach that does more around crop replacement and supporting farmers that are producing cocoa, rather than elimination. Petro has also said that he wants to renegotiate the free trade agreement with the United States. It's unclear exactly what that would look like, but the Biden Administration, I think, would probably at this point sit down with him, but there would be trade tensions around what that renegotiating agreement would look like.
Alicia Holland:
In terms of Fico, I don't think there would be really any change in current relationship with the United States. And so in that sense even more continuity and I would say looming over all of this is that Colombia again is in a pretty delicate fiscal position. So even beyond the United States, I do wonder if, depending on the sort of trajectory of what Petro [inaudible 00:25:53], that we'd also be in a scenario where a lot of the tensions are more around IMF and fiscal policy and what Colombia is actually doing to control its debt, that expanded quite a lot during the pandemic from a relatively precarious position.
June Carolyn Erlick:
Particularly in the case of Petro, how would it affect the relationship with other Latin American countries?
Alicia Holland:
Well, Petro would be coming to power at a time that you actually see another wave of left-wing leaders in the region. I think it would be really interesting to see how Petro and Chile's newly elected president, Gabriel Boric, might establish relations and find commonalities. Boric in a lot of ways is less of a known quantity in the sense Petro's been kicking around his vision for what a progressive left is. But in a lot of ways, when I look at Chile and the sort of debates about more environmentally conscious left, one that recognizes indigenous and black rights, but at the same point rethinking the economic model, I think there could be lots of interesting commonalities there.
Alicia Holland:
Petro has clearly said he's not going to rewrite Colombia's constitution. So in that sense, I don't think it would be quite the same experiment that Chile and Boric is having, but I think there could be interesting discussions. Castillo in Peru in a lot of ways I think represents what Petro does not want to happen to him in the sense of just such heated conflict with congress, that really there's been no space for Castillo, who's also on the left, to govern, but I would expect them to have more relations.
Alicia Holland:
Probably the most interesting relationship is what Petro ends up doing with Venezuela. He has said that he wants to reopen discussions with Venezuela, but has often hedged at exactly what that looks like. So for electoral purposes, he often pitches it, that talking to Venezuela is necessary to resolve the border crisis. So especially cities like Cúcuta, which is right on the border between Colombia and Venezuela, Petro will say, "We have to have discussions because those two cities are linked every day." On the other hand, he's really wanted to take a step away from Venezuela, given all the accusations we just talked about that he's going to follow Chavez and Maduro down a path of socialism.
Alicia Holland:
But I'd expect that people have slightly warmer relations if we instate diplomatic relations with Maduro. That's not to say following Venezuela's economic model, but Colombia has a strong interest also in trying to manage migration and stem migration, so I think you would see closer cooperation along those issues. And as just a last word, the relationship with Maduro raises more generally what his relationship would be like with authoritarian leftists in the region. So I think you'll see similar questions around Nicaragua and Ortega, where I think Petro has not wanted to say too much about what he'll do, but I think it'll be very interesting whether he moves more towards the democratic left of Boric in Chile, Castillo, potentially Lula coming back to power in Brazil and maintain somewhat more distance with Maduro, Ortega and the authoritarian left in the region.
June Carolyn Erlick:
Well, now, I'm going to ask you to bring out your crystal ball again. What do you expect from Sunday, May 29th?
Alicia Holland:
I think that we will see Petro and Fico going on into the second round. I think the polls have been pretty consistent on that. I don't expect Petro to win a majority, which means we'll be down to a second round competition. And the second round, I think we'll see an incredibly polarized and dirty second round where Fico's strongest move is really to play up fears of a socialist left, fears of stopping oil production and the sort of economic devastation that would bring to Colombia. And Petro will try to portray Fico as another Duque, that's his strongest card.
Alicia Holland:
My suspicion is that it'll be a much tighter race than it often looks like. I do think Petro will end up winning if I had to bet today, but I think that the accusations of a radical left that's going to send Colombia into turmoil are going to scare a lot of moderate voters, either to stay home or to cast no ballots or potentially to turn to more of the same moderate-right lane government that we've had for the past, as long as we can remember basically.
June Carolyn Erlick:
Thank you very much. You've been listening to Alicia Holland. She's associate professor at Harvard's Government Department with the focus on Andean countries. Thank you, Alicia.
Alicia Holland:
Thank you.