Faculty Voices

Episode 9: What to Make of the Ecuadoran Elections

Episode Summary

Alisha Holland, Associate Professor in the Harvard Government Department, looks at the implications of the April 11 elections in Ecuador.

Episode Transcription

June:

Alisha Holland is associate professor in the Harvard Department of Government. Welcome Alisha.

Alisha Holland:

Thank you so much June. It's wonderful to be here.

June:

I understand there is some very interesting elections coming up in Ecuador on April 11th. What can you tell us about the candidates? Can you tell us a bit about the candidates?

Alisha Holland:

Sure. So RA this has been an exciting election because Ecuador uses a two round system for its presidential election. So we already had the first round in February, which featured a very divided [inaudible 00:00:43] and a close fight for the second place spot. So the top two candidates go on into the final round, which as June said, it's going to be on April 11th. And the first placed candidate was relatively clear. His name is Andrés Arauz and he is perceived as sort of the successor to Ecuador's very popular president, Rafael Correa, who governed the country from 2011 until 2014. So Arauz is the protege of Correa, he was the central bank head under Correa and closely aligned with the sort of populist movement that drew a lot of support in Ecuador in the late 2000s.

Alisha Holland:

And then the second place slot went to Guillermo Lasso who is a former banker perceived very much as part of the quote neoliberal right of the country. He's already run for president three times in the past and associated with a certain financial elite and more conservative macroeconomic policy. I'll just say he edged out for the second place slot another candidate named Yaku Pérez who had excited a lot of indigenous voters, also the younger voters representing indigenous environmental leftist alternative. And he lost by just point 04% of the vote to make it into the second round and that really is casting a shadow on everything that's going to happen in April.

June:

I understand that he and his party are calling for a boycott of the elections. Is that a real thing? And what difference will it make?

Alisha Holland:

That's a great question June. So since the National Electoral Council stopped a recount of the vote, Yaku Pérez has been denouncing fraud in the election system. And as June said, calling for a boycott or for voters to spoil their ballots in the April election. I think it's very clear what effect that's going to have. I mean already in such a polarizing set of candidates, there are many voters who feel like they don't want to support either option. And so I think it is the case that we will see a lot of blank ballots or no ballots cast purely out of the dissatisfaction with what's perceived as sort of a continuation of the past. Correa has been accused of massive corruption and in many circles seen as sort of betraying also, you know, sort of leftist more social movement oriented part of the Ecuadorian political scene.

Alisha Holland:

And on the other hand have a candidate who really represents a pretty traditional right wing alternative. And so for many voters, those just aren't attractive candidates and I think there'll be a lot of no votes and blank votes. And Pérez really does command an important part of the electorate. He garnered almost 20% of the votes, probably not everybody who voted for him is going to spoil their ballot but it's quite possible that we will see a lot of spoilt ballots. It's unclear though who those ballots would have gone to given that most of Pérez's supporters don't like either candidate. And that's the real question where, you know, removing those votes. If everybody voted to spoil their ballot, it's not clear who that swings the election towards.

June:

Now you talked about Arauz as being the correistas candidate. Lenín Moreno was also seen as a correistas candidate and he surprised a lot of people with his independence. So do you really expect that Arauz will be a correistas president or can we expect some surprises and differences there too?

Alisha Holland:

It's a fabulous question. So on the one hand both Lenín Moreno and Andrés Arauz are facing the same structural challenge, which is right now, oil prices are low, Ecuador has an enormous debt left behind by Correa. And there simply isn't the sort of fiscal space to implement the types of policies that Correa advocated. So in the case of Moreno, he came to office and quickly realized that the national coffers were empty and Correa had sold a lot of the future oil exports to China as repayment on loans. And so he really didn't have money to implement the sorts of leftist social policies that he had ran on and found himself needing to renegotiate Ecuador's debt with the IMF. Now that fiscal circumstance really hasn't changed and in some ways has gotten worse due to the global pandemic that's hit Ecuador's economy and public health system very hard.

Alisha Holland:

So, even though, Arauz is promising really important social measures like he's told every family we'll get an $1000 check. And he's going to reinstate support for public universities that Moreno had tried to cut and expand social programs, including free internet for students and teachers. He's made a lot of big social promises, but at the end of the day, the question still is how do you pay for those programs? And so in that case, we might see Arauz forced to pivot much like mugging or less. So on the one hand the structural circumstances is the same, on the other hand, obviously Moreno and Arauz are different candidates. So Moreno always was a little bit apart from Correa's sort of central group.

Alisha Holland:

And I think part of what happened when Moreno came to power, they were in the middle of a giant corruption scandle where he realized just how dirty in particular, the sort of vice president, Jorge Glas and his inner circle had been within the Correa administration. And that created a powerful backlash to break with that segment of Correa's movement and to prosecute people like Jorge Glas. Now Arauz is a little bit more in this sort of economic policy team of Correa. And now many of the corruption accusations have already been processed and so that dynamic is a little bit different, but it's still very complicated in trying to negotiate Correa's legacy, because even though much of his period in government is warmly remembered infrastructure expansions, major social programs. It's also true that the sort of corruption accusations and the sense that the current fiscal state is due to his mismanagement is really powerful. And I think that's made it difficult for Arauz to figure out how close he wants to be to Correa and how much he's going to promise to continue Correa's legacy.

June:

You've given us some insight into Arauz's social vision and promises. What would Lasso social mission look like going into a situation in which there are consequences from the pandemic, both in terms of health, economy, socially?

Alisha Holland:

Well, I mean, lasso in many ways... I should say he's also in a tough position, given that the idea of negotiating with the IMF implementing austerity measures is incredibly unpopular. And that's been very clear from the fact that Moreno has such low presidential approval ratings. And Lasso was seen as sort of advising the Moreno government and being part of that push to actually negotiate with the IMF and restructure Ecuador's debt. So in terms of financial policy, even though he's not going to pitch it, I would expect that much of the same sort of continued negotiations with the IMF continues. Now, on the other hand, you know, Lasso, obviously he's running against somebody with large social promises and so he's also trying to stress that he will for example, bring back employment and create lots of jobs through the reactivation of the economy.

Alisha Holland:

And so I think that in some ways he is trying to push himself a little bit more towards the center or the center left, but I don't think that he has, you know, other than sort of a general promise to create jobs, really pitched something that would show how he will reactivate the economy. He also says that he plans to increase the minimum wage. So, that's been an important social policy, so to create a minimum wage of about $500 a month. That's a very complicated policy in a country with a lot of informal employment. So the sense is it's not clear whether raising the minimum wage would actually expand high quality employment, but that's been one of his important promises.

Alisha Holland:

Gender issues have also been very much on the agenda. So Lasso said that he would create kind of a special ombudsman office specifically for women and to address some of the complaints about gender violence that have surged during the pandemic. On the other hand, there was some criticism that Alice had met with many of the powerful feminist movements in the country where so far Lasso has not sat down with those women's movements. So there's an interesting fight for women's votes in this election and the perception of being responsive to some of the gender issues that had come out of the pandemic.

June:

Well, now that we're on the subject of gender, why don't we move to indigenous rights. The third candidate was an indigenous man and as we talked about before is advocating the boycotting of the elections, but where do each of the candidates stand on indigenous rights?

Alisha Holland:

This is a very complicated issue and I think this goes back to the point that many of the supporters of Pérez don't know who they will support in the second round because neither candidate has a particularly strong record of defending indigenous rights. So on Arauz's side, the concern is that much like Correa he will prioritize the economic development of the country, even if that means pursuing extractivist policies to the detriment of indigenous groups. So Correa famously thought with Patrick Gutek and opened up drilling in the Yasuni National reserves. So those were policies that very much were seen as going against many indigenous interests. And so many, I think indigenous movements are rightly skeptical that Arauz would change the policies that Correa pursued and really defend their interests. On the other hand Lasso is also a very complicated figure.

Alisha Holland:

So on the one hand, he is associated with right-wing kind of conservative banking policies that conflict with the social vision, that's pushed by at least the more [inaudible 00:13:53] Patrick Gutek and the indigenous movement. Also, he was seen as advising Moreno's government and Moreno faced enormous protests in October 2019 led by indigenous activists. And those protests were met with repression and so the sense is that Lasso also has a bit of blood on his hands for the way that he responded to indigenous activism. And so I think there's a great deal of skepticism about backing Lasso. I should say Pérez in the 2017 election actually supported Lasso's candidacy over Moreno's and so that Alliance is possible, but I think in this election, Pérez Patrick Gutek had been much more cautious. And as we've talked about aren't going to endorse either candidate at least as far as we see.

June:

When I think about Ecuador, I think of a country that's highly divided in terms of regions. How do you expect that's going to play out in the upcoming election?

Alisha Holland:

That's a great question June and I think this was also one of the reasons that many people were skeptical that Lasso even made it into the second round. So Lasso's vote base is really concentrated in the major urban areas. So he basically won Pichincha the sort of province that contains Quito, he didn't even win Guayaquil which is thought to be the main sort of financial and banking center. And so in a certain sense, he has very concentrated blocks of support. That's also where a lot of voters are so it's not an impossible electoral calculus. In contrast, Pérez won many of the more heavily indigenous parts of the country. And so I think there's a real question about how those areas are going to vote in the second round.

June:

Do you see Ecuador is being divided, still divided between anti Correa and Pro Correa or have other issues come to the forefront which divide the nation?

Alisha Holland:

So I think there still is a big division around Correa's legacy. On the other hand I would interpret the results from the first round as part of an attempt to move beyond a simple anti Correa division. So both in terms of Pérez making inroads for an indigenous environmentalist lapse and then also we haven't talked about the fourth placed candidate, was Xavier Hervas who is running on a sort of social democratic ticket and both Pérez and Hervas I think really represented an attempt to create a sort of anti Correa, but leftist vision that would beyond this cleavage that had formed around Correa. So I think there's an appetite to go beyond this sort of division around Correa and really confront some of Ecuador's economic and social problems. But the second round, because of the candidates that made it into the runoff looks a lot like a Correa versus anti Correa contest yet again.

June:

So one of these guys is going to be elected. What are the principle challenges which they are going to be facing?

Alisha Holland:

So both of them I think have a really tough road ahead. We've already talked about the fact that Ecuador is in really tough economic straits that preceded the global pandemic, but the pandemic has hit the country really hard. Ecuador depends heavily on tourism, which even in the best case scenarios of vaccination probably is going to be slow to return. So it's going to have a very tough economic recovery that's going to constrain the fiscal space available to launch large social programs that many citizens are demanding. At the same point I think many students have lost a year of education and there's sort of inequalities in the education system which is something both candidates are aware of and yet the capacity to actually address some of those inequities, I think is pretty limited.

Alisha Holland:

Likewise, promises to create jobs are difficult to implement in practice. Economic recovery often comes faster than the jobs' recovery and so I think Ecuador is going to see very high rates of unemployment for some time to come. Unemployment was over 30% in December and I think that's going to be slow to fall. And even if a candidate is able at the presidential level to sort of overcome the anti Correa divide, that tension is very present in national assembly. And so in terms of building coalitions and passing legislation, both candidates will have a difficult time navigating Congress. So I think that also is going to complicate whatever social policy initiatives go forward in the future.

June:

Do you have any sense of which of the two candidates would be more likely to be able to make effective coalitions?

Alisha Holland:

That's a great question. So, in some ways I think that Arauz has a larger block in the national assembly and might be able to build more effective governing coalitions. I actually think the main risk to Lasso though, isn't so much the national assembly as it is street protests. So I think the concern is that Lasso will try to continue with many of austerity measures and deals with the IMF that Moreno tried to navigate. And the likely outcome is that you will see Pachakutik and many other leftist movements return to the streets. And we could have a replay as you know, the 1990s and early 2000s when powerful social movements basically kicked presidents out of office. And that might be especially a risk given the question of the legitimacy of the first round vote count.

June:

So we've been talking a lot about the I'll say political baseball of these elections, but why do these elections matter for Latin America?

Alisha Holland:

Well, there are a couple of reasons. I think many countries are navigating the complicated legacy, the populous presence. So one thing that we're seeing in Ecuador that is common to Bolivia, or probably eventually Venezuela in more democratic periods or that has hung over Peru is really how party systems reform after a very popular individual held power. And so one of the questions is if Arauz comes to office, is Correa going to be a sort of shadow president from behind sort of like a [inaudible 00:22:24] in Russia service scenario and does that then pave a path for his return and possible overhaul charges against him. So that's one scenario, which I think is an example of how hard it is to... Or one possible paths for countries to follow after having such popular political leaders.

Alisha Holland:

Another very different path is obviously seeing those movements break apart internally and sort of completely fragmenting the party system which is another outcome in Ecuador. So I think we can learn a lot about populous legacies from a case like Ecuador. I think the second thing that's been very interesting, even though we won't see it play out in the second round of election really is a fight over the different types of Left's that can make traction in Latin America. And I think Pèrez [inaudible 00:23:32] it in part was on the base of indigenous votes, but it also attracted a lot of environmentalists, a lot of young voters, he used social media very effectively and really portrayed a vision of a left that prioritized cultural rights and the environment. And that's been a major tension within the left and was Correa and Morales in Bolivia as well.

Alisha Holland:

And many times Morales in particular, even though he came from an indigenous background at times, he really pushed developmental projects that were seen as conflicting with indigenous interests. The TIPNIS highway is the sort of most extreme example, but that's a case where the less emphasis on economic development and economic growth is creating conditions to then redistribute resources and build social programs, sometimes conflicts with another part of the last potential vision, which emphasizes the rights of local communities, the rights of indigenous and minority communities. And that's a vision that much more has been taken up by Patrick Gutek and I think it is important to many Ecuadorians and many Latin Americans more broadly. And then of course in the middle, they had sort of [inaudible 00:24:59] a social democratic figure with a little less environmental focus. But I think that the election was interesting in exposing the different visions of what the left should represent in Latin America and the tension that can form between development and local community interests.

June:

Over the past 20 years. We've heard a lot about, "Oh, there's a pink tide, oh, look, it's moving to the right, look, it's moving to the left again." Do these elections make any difference in terms of building coalitions within Latin America?

Alisha Holland:

It's an interesting question. I mean, I think that it's possible that Arauz comes back to power, you'll see stronger coalitions or you could say continued coalitions with partners in Bolivia and a certain sense of a continued leftist vision for Latin America. On the other hand I think in some ways I think the pink tide and the right reversal, you know, receive a standard sort of alternation of power and that does fragment of the unity in terms of a block of leftist governments. But I think it also shows a certain degree of healthy democracy that is shifting between these different political visions. I think that obviously the pandemic is hanging over everything and it will be interesting to see what the sort of medium term political consequences of that are.

Alisha Holland:

Whether voters turn more to leftist options in terms of continued promises of social support and economic recovery. On the other hand, these are very complicated times financially and so it's possible to see voters head back to right-wing or center right candidates who promise sound economic management. And that could create a block for candidates more with a profile like lost souls who are entering the stage with the promise to essentially get Latin American countries out of what could be pretty complicated financial times.

June:

If you had some tea leaves right there before you, what do you think is going to happen on April 11th? And how should we read the sign?

Alisha Holland:

In some ways it feels like such a replay of 2017 that I probably would put my money on Arauz winning just because I think the number of voters who really support what's perceived to be such a right wing candidate like Lasso is limited. I think we're going to see a lot of blank ballots, but at the end of the day, more people are going to be willing to return to Arauz and hope that he's broken with the worst parts of the Correa movement. And I think that the real question is how does someone like Arauz govern without all of the commodity breads that made Correa's coalition possible. And we're going to have to see whether, you know, first of all, whether Arauz wins, but also whether he'll be able to find any economic path forward to implement some of the types of social demands and social promises that he's already made.

June:

Thank you very much Alisha. You've been listening to Alisha Holland, the associate professor in the Harvard Department of Government. Thank you very much for having been here with us on Faculty Voices.